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U.S. GAO Recognizes Peak Oil |
4 Comments |
| By Aaron Newton in Green Living | March 30, 2007 | ||
If you are a citizen in want of the truth, I would strongly suggest taking a peak at what will inevitably be a milestone in history. The U.S. Government Accountability Office has released an official report that acknowledges peak oil (If only it had been released earlier on the 15th of March). I am linking to a copy from the Hilltop High School that brought you the Hirsch Report when no one else could. Thanks Rick. Here’s the NEW GAO REPORT. (PDF warning)
The guts of the report are a bit wishy-washy. You can get an overview of the report from Energy Bulletin here. It says we might not peak until 2040. In fact it includes studies that say we won’t peak after 2100 which is like saying Hank Aaron might hit another major league baseball home run. It is possible, but it ain’t very likely at all. Stuart Staniford from the oil drum sums up my thoughts,
“I don’t endorse exactly where the center of gravity of the report is (My reading of the evidence is that we are more-or-less at peak already, but I also think adaptation is not going to be as hard as some people think). But despite that, just the legitimization of the debate is a big deal.”
So it’s important to recognize why this report is so important and why it really isn’t. It is important because big, lumbering government is about to enter into the discussion of peak oil. While it could take decisive action- even effect real change- in all likelihood it will fumble around and postpone it’s own action in response to this problem the same way it does with most other problems. So it is important not to get our hopes up that now, with official recognition of the problem (please read in sarcastic voice) the U.S. government will step in and save the day. It won’t.
But we must also be aware of our government’s past history of co-opting fear for its benefit. Beware the tales of woo we might be told in order to enforce foolish, draconian laws in order to save us from the peak. We must remember that real social change happens from the bottom up not the top down. Look to your local community, not the federal government, to make changes that might affect your life. And don’t buy into big government fear.
How best then might we use this groundbreaking piece of peak oil legitimization? As propaganda of course. You know that mother-in-law who thinks you’re crazy, “With your crazy talk of peak oil and the end of the world?” Here’s an official U.S. government report that recognizes peak oil. Point it out to the skeptics. Do your local government officials continue to turn down your invitations to your monthly screening of “The End of Suburbia” at your local coffee house? Here’s another bullet in the barrel of truth. Shoot with this one and you might be able to bag some unbelievers that could be useful to the preparation of your community for all that will be post peak. It’s one thing to point to the vast amount of information available on the dang ole internet about the coming global peak in oil production as eminent. It’s quite a different animal all together to hand a doubter the web address of an official government report that backs you up.
Now, safely inoculate against the possibility of fear induced by our government and armed with the representation of an official U.S. government report on the topic, please get to work in your local communities in advance of the peak in global oil production almost upon us.
Oh and enjoi this video of Matt Simmons responding to the report. Thanks to Michael for helping me to learn how.
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CM said,
Should that be 2040 and not 1940?
aaron newton said,
quite right.
GroovyGreen.com - Start Today :: Save Tomorrow : Blog Archive : Follow up to Subprime article said,
[...] You may have seen the recent Magazine article published relating to the Subprime housing market and wondered why is that important to an environmental website? There are myriad reasons, but the biggest of which is the understanding that any economic difficulties that our country experiences from this market meltdown over the next few years directly impacts our country’s ability to make green changes to our lifestyle, and address all the issues in front of us. An economy in recession or depression has less capital to expend to make the necessary changes and preparations for the future. Combine these economic challenges with the upcoming oil challenges we are sure to experience and the result appears to be great difficulty for us in the future. Incorporating all the different aspects of the “green” initiative when you understand how the American economy works and what factors drive the economy forward will hopefully allow you to make more informed decisions. [...]
Stu said,
I like the heading on that video above. We need an Urgent search for a sustainable oil supply lol……..there is no such thing as a sustainable oil supply………unless you nominate a time period that the sustainability related to. The fact that oil is a finite resource means it is unsustainable…….period. This is the problem that the average person does not understand…….they think that high prices will mean more investment and exploration and exploitation of previously uneconomic sources……..which it will……but that can not go on forever……it reaches a point where the energy invested in the exploration and extraction is greater then the energy derived from the oil…….and it doesn’t matter how high the price is at that point……your using more energy then you are getting back so it is not supplying energy to us anymore…….regardless of price. Think of it like this…….you have a cupboard full of food…….there is only so much……it’s easy to get……you walk to your cupboard…..open it and take out some food…….the food give you the energy to stay alive and do things. There is harder to get food a few miles away in another cupboard…….you only use a few calories of energy to walk to your cupboard to get a few thousand calaries of energy. Your cupboard will run out however…….no probs…….the cupboard a few miles away has food……but………you use a few hundred calories of energy to walk to that cupboard…….but you have no choice……the return is not as great…….but it’s still enough to keep you going. That cupboard runs out too, ….but you have discovered through exploration while you were using up your previous cupboards that there is indeed more cupboards of food a hundred or so miles away…….again………you have no choice…….now you are using say 10000 calories to get 12000 calories of food energy……..your human body is becoming merely a closed economy where nearly all energy obtained is spent on obtaining more energy with very little left over to do anything else……produce other goods……other travel………recreation etc. Then that cupboard runs out of food. You may have found more cupboards…….but it’s getting harder and harder to find more cupboards because all your energy is going to just harvesting the currently found cupboards with little left over. The cupboards that you become aware of that exist so far away that you will use 15000 calories to obtain 10000 calories of energy mean………..your a dead man walking. On top of that……..just as the food in each individual cupboard runs out…….so does the source of new cupboards…………you see there are really no new cupboards…..they were always there……..no new cupboards can come into existence……so all the extra exploration does not “have too” result in finding more cupboards………in fact…..with each new cupboard found……….there is less cupboards to find……until there are none…….that is unavoidable. Aaahhh, but someone can put more food in the cupboard……..no they can’t….not when it comes to oil………..unless the oil comes from one of the other cupboards……just like the American cupboard became insufficent after it’s decline……….they got oil from the middle eastern cupboard……….the world cupboard will have no other cupboard to go to when the world is in decline. But there is the tar sands cupboard………and the shale oil cupboard……….and the solar, wind, geothemal, tidal cupboards……….yes……they are the cupboards that are far away and will require 10000 calories of spent energy to aquire 12000 calories of energy………..maybe not dead man walking…….but a lot less energy then we had before.