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Future Scenarios |
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| By Chris Welch in Climate Change, Peak Oil, Permaculture | October 1, 2008 | ||
What will the next 10-20 years be like? With global climate change and peak oil what can we expect? David Holmgren co-originator of the permaculture concept has developed a new website investigating some possible outcomes.
Future Scenarios: Mapping the cultural implications and climate change.
The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation.
Global oil peak has the potential to shake if not destroy the foundations of global industrial economy and culture. Climate change has the potential to rearrange the biosphere more radically than the last ice age. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other.
The strategies for mitigating the adverse effects and/or adapting to the consequences of Climate Change have mostly been considered and discussed in isolation from those relevant to Peak Oil. While awareness of Peak Oil, or at least energy crisis, is increasing, understanding of how these two problems might interact to generate quite different futures, is still at an early state.
FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy.
The site is arranged as a long essay. Holmgren has recently been contracted by Chelsea Green to write a book based on this website that will be published in the US, early 2009.
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Rob said,
A year or so ago I was concerned about this same convergence of changes. Climate change and peak oil are not being addressed by world leaders in a collaborative way yet. I felt helpless. Then as I tried to research what I could do and what people can do from a grass roots level, I realized 2 significant solutions. Bicycles and urban farming using permaculture techniques.
Chris said,
The National Wildlife Federation recently finished a send-a-letter-to-the-EPA widget and Facebook application that sends an official message to the Environmental Protection Agency urging them to recognize the impact greenhouse gases are having on our planet. We’re trying to drum-up up some support for their cause. If you’re so inclined, we’d appreciate a link to either application or simply spread the word! Thanks so much!
Widget: http://www.clearspring.com/widgets/48dd4c8e92491714
Facebook Application: http://apps.new.facebook.com/speakupforwildlife/
John Mackenzie said,
I have the same thoughts and concerns and created my farm and edible landscaping venue.
At first I was doing it for myself and now I’m doing it for everybody.
check out MillerMackenzie.com